Decision-Making in a Complex Environment

If you manage a large team, including people with more specialised technical expertise than yourself, how do you ensure that your decisions are good ones?

Is decision-making an art or a science?

I think this is an important question. If you think it's an art, then it is only a short step away from saying "some people have 'it', and others don't." And if you think like that, then it is very hard, perhaps even impossible, to improve your decision-making.

So, I come down firmly in the camp that says it's a science. In other words, it can be approached methodically, and the process can be improved.

What do we mean by a "good decision"?

Some decisions are good in the short term, but not necessarily so in the longer term. Every parent understands this: when your two-year old is throwing a tantrum in the supermarket because she wants some sweets, do you give in for the sake of peace and quiet, or ride it out? The first option is undoubtedly better from a peaceful existence point of view, and to avoid embarrassment, but it's very much a short-term solution. In the long run, the child learns that tantrums work, and so your easy way out will cause more of the same in the future.

So, a good decision is one which:

• Furthers the aims of the team in terms of its strategic plan.
• Does not sacrifice the long-term for the short-term.
• Is cost-effective.
• Included the team, or at least leaves the team feeling that it has been listened to.

Less is more

So, how do you arrive at good decisions? Your decisions can only be as good as the information you have on which to base them. But "good" does not mean "plenty". In fact, the more information you have, the less likely you are to be able to use it effectively. The best thing to do is to ask one of your team to summarise the issues for you.

My preference has always been for what I call the "A4 Briefing". I don't care how complex a problem is, it should be explainable in no more than a side of A4 (or Letter if you're in the USA). In fact, one of my bosses insisted on no more than half a dozen bullet points.

Ask for options

What I also like is for the person who is summarising the information to outline some options. Nothing too complicated -- that would defeat the object -- but just enough to give me some hooks on which to hang my thought processes.

Take time out

Swans on the lake at Audley End. Watching them can help in your decision-making.

I think we have a tendency to hammer away at a problem, but often the best thing to do after some initial thought is to go away from it completely. An afternoon spent by a river, say, can work wonders, because while you're walking, your subconscious is working.

Now that's what I call efficiency!

Comments

[david]

disagree on the A4 - lots of problems incliude so many aspects that you would only be able to include 1 aspect on the A4 . The other 200 aspects need to be adressed - eg something like why isn't ICt being embedded in this school? breaks down to loads of factors to be addressed. So if you did summarise the whole problem and raft of solutions you will use on A4 the text would be so dense with jargon and acronyms that no one but you coud read it. So really you keep the whole big picture to yourself and put one of the sub problems and goals on the A4 for distribution and you keep track of the a4 rollouts and progress towards the bigger goal.

[Terry Freedman, Educational ICT Consultant]

Thanks, David
I agree with you, but my view is that the initial A4 sheet identifies the most important factors. You would then need to prioritize them, and each one you decide to address would be the focus of another A4 sheet.

[david]

ok that's better but isn't it funny you are using a paper-based criterion in the internet age. In fact a computer based method of representing the complex environment , the problems, the posible solutions and steps would be useful? What would you use for this? Excel or some sort of project management software? Something on the web?

[Terry Freedman, Educational ICT Consultant]

Well, I am using the term 'A4' metaphorically to some extent, but I do happen to think that paper is a pretty good medium! Interesting Q you ask re excel etc, as I am about to start a new series of posts on this very topic. Look out for a series of posts tagged 'cool tools for ICT leaders'. Cheers

[david]

sounds great can you include google spreadsheets as well as excel?
the former seems to accept the one excel worksheet with formulas - countif - i imported into it

[Terry Freedman, Educational ICT Consultant]

Thx, David. From what I recall, Google recognises most Excel formulae, but some of the more complex ones are not recognised. I'll look into it if/when I have time, unless you or anybody else knows offhand if it recognises functions like SUMIF (very useful)?